Along with most other developed countries, the UK is experiencing population ageing, due to a sustained decline of birth rates below replacement fertility. By 2051, people over 65 are likely to represent over a quarter of the UK population, their number will have risen by 81% in five decades to reach 16.8 million by 2051. The number of people aged 85 and over is projected to grow at a faster rate, from 1.1 million in 2000 to 4 million in 2051, which represents a drastic increase of 255%.
The demographic shift is an irreversible and unprecedented phenomenon, which is set to have serious socio-economic implications for the UK, its economic growth, its labour market, and its social welfare model, particularly with regards to its pensions systems and its public-sector healthcare budgets. It will also affect family composition and living arrangements, and there is a risk that a larger population of older people will become marginalised and socially excluded.
Recognising that the rapid ageing of the population is challenging the economy and the social welfare systems in place, the UK Government has developed policies that aim to address these issues, especially with regards to health and social care services which are affected by rapidly rising costs and a shortage of health- and social-care professionals. These policies stress the importance of improved support for carers and the development of integrated and person-centred services that fit the needs of older people and patients with chronic diseases. As there is growing recognition across government departments of the potential of technology to address the challenges set by an ageing population, UK policies are supported by a range of initiatives promoting the deployment of innovative telecare and assistive technologies and new managed services to enhance and maintain the health, independence and well-being of older people at home.
Population ageing will not only stimulate the market for assistive and telecare technologies, but will offer opportunities to electronic-device manufacturers in a range of areas from intelligent home and office spaces to smart transport systems. The convergence of pervasive computing, ubiquitous telecommunication and intelligent devices offers new possibilities to create smart environments that are able to recognise and respond to the needs of individuals in a seamless and unobtrusive way, whilst remaining under the control of people. In the coming decades, ambient intelligence may be able to assist people with physical limitations or mental disability in living longer in their own home, where they feel comfortable, without requesting assistance from carers. However, widespread deployment of ambient intelligence will ony be possible when solutions are found to current existing problems related to cost, interoperability, accuracy and reliability of technology.
Muriel Jayawardene
Pera